Currently loads of emails from concerned others, several from people who I haven't heard from in years (Moira, I don't mean you...)

I've had the feeling myself, seeing some news article about a massive tropical storm, political upheavals, etc and then thinking "Oh, I know so and so who lives there, about time to get in touch." Funny how disaster can provide the pretext to breaking the ice...

Anyway, had the following rant at a good friend this morning and thought it s succinct enough summarry of the current position to share;

SARS is more of a pain in the butt than a worry at the moment. A lot has to do with "what's hype and what's cause for concern?"

We (HK residents) are being treated like leppers abroad, which is always nice. Some friends of ours in Beijing recently cancelled a trip down to visit due to SARS. Little did they know the state of their own city at the time...

The long and short of it is that there's a nasty case of pneumonia about. It is not clear if this kills more old and sick people than other types of pneumonia (3,000 per year die in HK from Pneumonia, on average; mostly by complicating other conditions - a similar pattern to SARS.) It rather looks like the death rate will be in the 10% range, with the vast majority being the elderly or those with another severe condition (they call it "pro morbid" lovely.) There are currently only three things that really concern me about the situation;

1. They don't seem to be able to stop healthcare workers getting it
2. The situation in China
3. The media hype

Unfortunately I suspect that the first (in HK at least) was due to a budgetry concern, something that I think will be addressed in HK in the next day or so. The fact of the matter is that 30% of cases are healthcare professionals and this is unforgivable. It should be 0%. I'm sure that the necessary resources are being currently thrown into beefing up the barrier nursing, but it's a bit late for those who've got it. The healthcare workers must be given all the support, afterall, they need the courage to continue working in the face of the media hype and the very real dangers that they face.

The situation in China is probably now out of control. The Chinese lied to their own people about the facts of the disease (saying that there were 10 cases in Beijing, when there were probably 500+ at the time and now nearly 1000) in order to try and avoid panic, but also because they were embarassed at what they view as their internal problem. As soon as the WHO caught them out, in an exposé that would have likely led to the fall of many western governments, many of the city dwellers in Beijing fled to the countryside. God only knows how many of them have taken the disease with them and are currently spreading it in their communities that remain uninformed. Perhaps, then, the Chinese were right to put avoidance of public panic above the truth. Time will tell.

Finally the media hype, which is truly irresponsible. To read the UK and US press, you'd think that there were prople keeling over on the streets here under the influence of the "KILLER BUG" as the BBC called it. The BBC, for God's sake...I can only imagine what the Sun is printing... It's got our european and US clients in such a tiz that we may have to cancel a round of design meetings next month; there's no point flying round the world to meet people who won't sit in the same room as you. One of our clients told us a story that they had a staff exchange from Japan to Paris. The French refused to work with the Japanese over fears about SARS. Japan had no cases of SARS at the time and currently has 2, both imported (ie returning Japanese, who contracted it elsewhere.) When The US had a suspected case of Ebola 2 years ago, did the world stop doing buisiness with Canada overnight? Planes are quiet, although to the best of my knowledge no-one has yet caught it on a plane. There have obviously been several who have taken it with them on flights. Right now a plane is probably the safest place to be, as there's no-one on them.

Meanwhile, an outbreak of Ebola (a truly terrifying disease) in ther Congo has killed 123 out of 140 which it has infected, as of 14 April. On the same day, SARS had infected 3169 and killed 144. No-one seemed to care about Ebola in the press...

Enough ranting, suffice to say that I believe the situation is far less severe than the press is painting it, people wander about in masks, but it is not really clear how much wearing a mask is helping, when you lift it up to talk to someone or spit on the ground...

Life goes on, I'm keeping an eye on the ebola outbreak. Trouble is, they update SARS news daily (http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/) but Ebola seems to be only every 2 weeks. Ah well I guess the middle classes are more important after all...

Current stats; Total infected 4439 Total new infections (yesterday) 158 Total deaths 263 Total recovered 2117

One thing I don't know - once you've had it, are you immune?